Master magician Steve Jobs has turned bland press announcements into an art form. These days, you cannot escpae the press about any Apple announcement. And so it goes with the iPhone announcement. I’m all for new technology. Like most people, I was taken in by the hype and at first glance thought, “Wow. Jobs has done it again”.
Not so fast. Take a longer, harder, critical look at the iPhone and you start to lose the excitment. As I searched around the Net looking for responses, I found more questions than answers. It would seem a lot of people are beginning to question just how successful this product will be. Count me among them. Here are some of the responses I found….
From Karen Haslam at MacWorld:
The iPhone does what it does well, but it doesn’t do enough, according to Current Analysis analyst Avi Greengart.
“The iPhone is an innovative, addictive, expensive closed system that does what it does extraordinarily well, but that’s it,” he told Macworld, predicting: “I actually expect a backlash of sorts as people figure out how much this thing doesn’t do.”
According to Greengart, there are issues with the iPhone that even this market of early-adopter consumers will find hard to swallow. “There are no hard buttons and people are going to find that hard to deal with. People like physical keys that provide tactile feedback when you press them. Just look at the home theatre remote control world: they’ve been replacing their touchscreen remotes with hard buttons because people like tactile feedback.”
Another issue is the fact that it is not possible to add applications to it. Apple has already stated that it will not allow third parties to make software for the device – other than in conjunction with Apple itself. “That means no PDR (Physician’s Desk Reference) for doctors, no Weight Watchers for people tracking their ‘points’, etc., etc..
Pointing to the applications already available on the iPhone, Greengart added: “Even the apps that are available are not exclusive: Google Maps is also available on the Treo and BlackBerry and Yahoo! Mail is available on pretty much every smartphone.” Another failing of the iPhone in its current state is the fact that “there are no games”.
Greengart went on to criticise Apple’s solution for powering the phone. “The battery isn’t removable, and it doesn’t look like Apple has done anything to ease power management in terms of helping the user know when to stop watching video or listening to music. The first thing Palm learned with the Treo 600 was that a removable battery is mandatory on a voice device.”
Regarding the video player capabilities, Greengart added: “If you’re thinking of it as a widescreen iPod video for movies and TV, even the 8GB model fills up too quickly. The first TiVo and ReplayTV PVRs had 20GB of storage, and even then that was seen as paltry. Apple’s iPod video models come in 30GB and 80GB sizes.”
In addition, Greengart pointed out that the iPhone will not be able to take advantage of those mobile phone networks that are beaming TV to mobile phones. “The carrier entertainment services (like TV or streaming video/music) will not work on iPhone,” he explained.
Another criticism is that the iPhone doesn’t include GPS or a navigation option.
Finally Greengart noted that the iPhone is “enormously expensive, even by smartphones standards”. Plus the phone is locked into Cingular on a two year contract. This high price is exacerbated further not just by the lack of applications, but by the inclusion of the 2-megapixel camera. “People buying $500 smartphones in mid-07 will have a lot of 3 and 5-megapixel cameraphones to choose from that are good enough that you won’t need to carry around a separate camera.” Added to that: “It doesn’t do video recording at all.”
Added to this cost is the likely high cost of sending and receiving data on the device. “Nobody will say how much the data plans will cost on top of the $500/$600 prince for the phone.” Greengart indicated that current Cingular data rates are an additional $45 a month.
From Martin MC Brown at ComputerWorld:
8GB is pitiful. Sorry, but if Apple expects me to sync photos, video, and music, 8GB is not enough. I’m still using my 1st generation 20GB iPod (well, two of them, in fact), but 20GB is not enough when I go on holiday, and that iPod just holds music. If I wanted to take the iPhone on holiday and provide with some alternative choices to fit my moods, plus email, plus calendars, plus photos, plus TV, movies, and other media, 8GB is going to seem like using a pocketbook to hold my entire luggage.
From Matthew Lynn at Bloomberg:
It will be released in the U.S. in June, with a rollout to the rest of the world later, and will cost $499 to $599, depending on how much storage space you want. How many might they sell? Ten million in 2008, according to Apple Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs.
Not everyone is sold on the idea.
“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure and challenges of the mobile industry,'’ Charles Golvin, an analyst at Forrester Research Inc., said in a report this month.
There are three reasons that Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market — and why it is too early to start dumping your Nokia shares.
First, Apple is late to this party. The company didn’t invent the personal computer or MP3 player, but it was among the pioneers of both products. Yet there is no shortage of phones out there. There are already big companies that dominate the space, all of whom will defend their turf. That means Apple will have to fight hard for every sale.
Next, the mobile-phone industry depends on cooperation with the big networks. Phones — the high-end ones in particular –are usually sold with a network contract. The provider subsidizes the handset in the U.K. and hopes to recoup its money with ridiculously expensive charges for calls and data. Yet Apple has never been good at working with other companies. If it knew how to do that, it would be Microsoft Corp.
On top of that, its rivals will be pulling out all the stops to prevent the networks offering iPhones. Sure, a big operator such as Vodafone Group Plc would like an exclusive deal to sell the iPhone in, say, the U.K. market. Against that, how much does it want to annoy Nokia — and what kind of incentives will Nokia be offering not to go with the Apple product? There will be lots of tough conversations between companies that know each other well. Apple will find it hard to win those negotiations.
Lastly, the iPhone is a defensive product. It is mainly designed to protect the iPod, which is coming under attack from mobile manufacturers adding music players to their handsets. Yet defensive products don’t usually work — consumers are interested in new things, not reheated versions of old things. Likewise, who is it pitched at? The price and the e-mail features make it look like a business product. But Apple is a consumer company. Will your accounts department stump up for a fancy new handset just so you can listen to Eminem on your way to a business meeting?
From crave at cnet:
Thirteen reasons to doubt the iPhone hype
1. Why no 3G compatibility? The answer might be as simple as the fact that Cingular’s 3G coverage still has gaping holes outside of major U.S. cities.
2. Does the lack of 3G matter if the iPhone has Wi-Fi? If the user wants to only occasionally stream media or download files, the iPhone’s Wi-Fi capabilities should scratch that itch…but only if you’re at a Wi-Fi hot spot and not using it in the backseat of a car, on the train, or sitting on a park bench. And Wi-Fi will have just as much–probably more–of a draining effect on the iPhone’s battery.
3. What’s under the hood? Nobody knows for sure. According to this Information Week article, the iPhone is likely have a Samsung CPU and video processor.
If it’s true, this may help explain the similarity in specs between the Samsung BlackJack and the Apple iPhone. For what it’s worth, the BlackJack performed very well in our Web browsing and video tests.
4. Can you download directly from iTunes? This looks to be a big disappointment with the iPhone. Early reports, such as this iTWire interview with Apple’s VP of iPod Products Greg Joswiak, say no.
From the iTWire article:
The Apple VP also quashed any speculation that the iPhone itself may house a self-contained version of iTunes. “iTunes was designed to exist on the Mac and PCs. That’s where the music should live.”
Don’t tell me where my music should and should not live, homeboy! I want it to live on my iPhone!
Regardless of where my music wants to live, if Apple is touting the iPhone as a device that runs Mac OS X, doesn’t that make the iPhone a Mac? Which brings us to the next question…
5. Just what does Apple mean by “it runs OS X”? And what do they mean by “multitasking”? During his keynote address, Steve Jobs mentioned the ability to multitask as one of Mac OS X’s strong suits, as well as a reason why the operating system was chosen for the iPhone.
Given the lack of 3G compatibility, that “multitasking” must be limited to applications within Mac OS X, not “multitasking” in the sense of being able to download a file while talking on the phone. That’s the kind of “multitask” that 3G networks are built to do.
Which begs the question: Who will really multitask between OS X applications on a mobile, touch screen device? At what point will anyone be simultaneously typing a document, formulating a spreadsheet, and composing a song on GarageBand on the iPhone?
6. Will it actually be called the iPhone?
Not if Cisco has anything to say about it.
Will it be the iPhod? The iCell? The iThing? The iCaramba?
7. Who’s this phone for, anyway? Who can afford this thing?
This answer is simple: Paris Hilton.
At $599 for the 8GB model and $499 for the 4GB model, it’s definitely priced for business users.
But as Tom Krazit and Declan McCullagh kindly point out:
Yahoo e-mail isn’t going to cut it in the business world.
It’s unknown which business applications will be available for the iPhone.
Will there be file-compatibility issues between the iPhone and Windows-centric businesses? Remember, the Vista age is almost upon us, and even next-generation Windows programs may have issues with files created in older versions.
If you add everything up, the iPhone looks like a starter smart phone for twentysomethings who just got a fat raise. It could even be compared to a touch screen Sidekick 3 Pro. At least the Sidekick has a mini-SD card slot so that you can expand its storage capacity, which brings us to…
8. Will Apple give the user any freedom? Want to know why there’s no memory card slots on the iPhone, nor will there likely be a user-replaceable battery?
Because Apple doesn’t want you to lay a finger on its phone without paying the piper.
Anyone who owns an iPod knows how hard it is to replace the battery, replace a dead hard drive, or fix the thing without going through Apple. Anyone who owns a Mac computer also knows how hard it is to upgrade any internal components without going through Apple. If you can figure out how to do these things yourself, you’ll break the warranty. If you go through Apple, you’ll probably have to give them more money in the process.
The iPhone is likely to be no different. To fix it, you’ll probably have to bring it to an Apple Store. To expand it, you’ll probably have to buy a new iPhone.
9. How much more than the unit price will the iPhone cost? As expensive as the iPhone is, it may get insanely unaffordable once you add in the monthly charges. To get the most out of the iPhone, you’ll likely need a voice plan, a data plan, and possibly Cingular’s own Wi-Fi plan.
Cingular has special data plans for its BlackBerry phones, and it’s possible, if not likely, that the iPhone will have its own special plan prices.
But if that’s not the case, be prepared to pay through the nose. If you look at the costs of Cingular’s low-end voice plan (450 minutes/month for $39.99), unlimited data plan ($44.99/month), and unlimited Wi-Fi plan ($99.99/month), you may need to tack on an extra $100 to $200 per month to use your iPhone to the fullest.
Also of note: Cingular charges a $175 fee for early contract termination.
10. Is this another iLock-in strategy? The iPhone is the only phone that runs Mac OS X, and probably will be for the foreseeable future. Judging from the iPod’s seamless, user-friendly integration with iTunes, Apple is sure to unveil iPhone-management programs that make managing contact info and other data as painless as possible. And that might actually be the problem.
Imagine this: You buy an iPhone, you manage all your iPhone’s data on your computer–contacts, music, files–and your iPhone kicks the bucket…dead battery, iPhone icon with x-ed-out eyes, whatever.
What now? Unless there are third-party programs to send your data to another phone, the easiest way–and possibly the only way–to get all that data onto another phone will be to buy another iPhone.
11. Just how useful is the touch screen? The iPhone user interface looks elegant, innovative, and easy-to-use, but is it the best interface for a device like this?
Whenever you do anything, the iPhone will command your full visual attention. “No buttons” may be sexy, but it also means you can’t do anything without looking at the phone.
The iPhone’s iPod usability may suffer even worse from the touch screen. Have you ever tried to operate an iPod while it’s in your pocket? You can do it, but it’s hard. The iPhone will make blind iPod-surfing downright impossible.
That said, it looks like the iPhone will eliminate accidental pocket-dialing once and for all.
12. Will early adopters be the only adopters? If the iPhone takes the world by storm, other manufacturers and carriers will borrow the iPhone’s most popular features. And they’ll probably offer them at a lower price.
13. What goes into a cell-phone purchase? Cell phones aren’t MP3 players. Even if Apple has the sexiest phone out there, many important factors come into play when anyone buys a cell phone.
How pleased is the user with the carrier?
What other phones are out there?
What will the phone primarily be used for?
How important is it to have the “it” phone of the moment? And is price no object?
Apple seems to be banking on the last factor being the most important. But is having “it” it?